With the situation in Venezuela temporarily subsiding, the focus of the tanker market has shifted back to Iran. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Gibson pointed out that, at present, the Iranian authorities appear to have quelled most of the unrest. However, the threat of potential attacks by the United States, disruptions in Black Sea exports, and the ongoing developments in Venezuela continue to keep the oil and shipping markets on edge. Predictions regarding the direction of potential incidents—such as U.S. attacks, escalated protests, or regime change—remain highly uncertain.
Gibson’s analysis suggests that attacks targeting Iran in the short term pose the greatest risk. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned that any aggression would trigger large-scale retaliation across the region. The primary threats still lie in potential disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on oil facilities in the area. Should conflict break out, the Houthi forces could also resume their assaults on vessels. Under such circumstances, insurance premiums and freight rates would inevitably rise, reflecting an increase in regional risk premiums.
Furthermore, the potential impact of regime change on oil production cannot be overlooked. Despite increasing sanctions pressure, Iran remains a major oil supplier. According to FGE data, the country's total oil production increased to 5.18 million barrels per day last year (including 3.64 million b/d of crude oil, 800,000 b/d of condensate, and 730,000 b/d of natural gas liquids), reaching a new high since the 1970s.
Conversely, if a reconciliation is reached with Washington, it could normalize Iran's oil exports. Although this process may take years, its impact on the tanker market would be profound. During the peak period of sanctions relief in 2017, Iran exported over 2.5 million barrels of crude oil to international markets, while last year's exports are estimated at 1.5 million barrels. Once sanctions are eased, Iranian crude oil will quickly return to major Asian economies such as India, Europe, the Mediterranean, and South Korea. Although Iran has ample shipping capacity of its own, most vessels struggle to meet the compliance requirements of mainstream buyers, which will push trading activities back to conventional tonnage. Gibson estimates that under a moderate scenario of annual exports of 2 million barrels, if the trading pattern replicates that of 2018, sanctions relief would create demand for 25 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) and 20 Suezmax tankers.
Currently, Iran is the second-largest user of the "shadow fleet," with approximately 20% of related capacity serving Iranian trade. In the VLCC sector, Iran is the largest operator of the "shadow fleet." Given the latest developments in Venezuela, a reconciliation with Iran could lead to a large-scale withdrawal of such vessels from the global oil supply chain, thereby benefiting the compliant tanker market. Thus, the situation in Iran will trigger profound changes in the tanker market. Whether the status quo will be maintained or the U.S. will intensify pressure remains to be seen. As the geopolitical landscape evolves rapidly, with U.S. strategy shifting from trade wars and sanctions to military means, the direction of the situation in 2026 remains highly uncertain.
