Recently, in its latest report, "Global Shipping Outlook 2026," Fitch Ratings noted that compared to changes in the industry's own supply and demand fundamentals, geopolitical and policy uncertainties have become the primary factors leading to its assessment of a weaker outlook for the global shipping industry in 2026. Related risks include potential tariff escalation, friction caused by protectionism, the resumption of Red Sea routes, uncertainties surrounding the situation in Venezuela, and increasing competition over control of the shipping value chain.
In the container shipping sector, Fitch Ratings expects that as supply and demand dynamics become more balanced, declining freight rates will weigh on industry profitability. The overall performance in 2026 may be significantly weaker than current levels. At the same time, if Red Sea routes gradually return to normal operations, this could also create additional downward pressure on freight rates. Regionally, there is a notable divergence in container trade, with North American routes expected to remain significantly weaker than other major markets.
In terms of capacity supply, the current order book for container ships is close to 30% of the existing fleet size, reaching a high not seen in over a decade. Fitch Ratings points out that this reflects both shipowners' continued ordering to replace aging vessels and enhance multi-fuel and emission reduction capabilities, as well as the accumulation of pressure from capacity expansion. Overall, future capacity growth is expected to outpace demand growth. However, measures such as an increase in vessel idling, blank sailings, scrapping, and slow steaming could partially mitigate the impact of supply-demand imbalances.
The tanker market is regarded by Fitch Ratings as a sector that will remain resilient in 2026, particularly crude oil tankers. Supported by growth in terminal demand and longer transportation distances, ton-mile demand for tankers remains strong. Data show that in 2025, driven by increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries, seaborne crude oil trade volume grew, with a supply increase of approximately 3%. This trend is expected to continue into 2026. At the same time, changes in the structure of Russian crude oil exports and disruptions in the Red Sea continue to push up global tanker demand.
Regarding the dry bulk market, Fitch Ratings anticipates that the overall performance of the sector will be relatively weak, although transport volumes are expected to remain largely stable year-on-year. Currently, the order books for dry bulk carriers and tankers account for approximately 11% and 16% of the existing fleets, respectively, primarily aimed at replacing aging vessels. Given the tight shipyard capacity over the next three years, the potential for a new round of large-scale fleet expansion remains relatively limited.
In other market segments, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers and vehicle carriers, Fitch Ratings expects their overall operational performance to remain relatively stable.
The report further indicates that if global trade protectionism intensifies, it could alter trade flows in the medium term and constrain the demand for transporting certain high-value-added or critical commodities. Although some emerging routes may gain growth opportunities due to tariff adjustments, overall, a protectionist environment remains unfavorable for the shipping industry.
On the regulatory front, maritime decarbonization policies continue to advance. The International Maritime Organization’s medium- to long-term decarbonization pathway under the “net-zero” framework is gradually becoming clearer, although specific measures are yet to be formally approved. Fitch Ratings believes that these environmental regulatory changes will exert pressure on shipping companies’ profit margins in the medium term, while the extent to which related costs can be passed downstream remains to be seen.
