Since 2025, influenced by the relatively sluggish global economy and disruptions from international political events, international shipping rates have experienced median fluctuations, new vessel orders have significantly corrected, and newbuild prices have softened from their highs. Looking ahead, the underlying drivers of the current shipbuilding market cycle remain intact. Supported by factors such as the replacement of aging vessels and the industry's green and intelligent transformation, the global shipbuilding market's broad upcycle is expected to continue. However, the short-term market will still face phased downward pressure, and the competitive landscape is quietly being reshaped.
1.Overall Shipping Rates Fluctuate Around Median Levels, with Sharp Downturns in LNG Carrier and Car Carrier Markets
This year, the international shipping market has generally oscillated with an upward bias, yet remains at median historical levels. The ClarkSea Index (a weighted average of earnings for tankers, bulk carriers, container ships, and gas carriers) rose from $21,621/day in January to $29,832/day in October, an increase of 38.0%; its January-October average was $25,805/day, up 1.3% year-on-year. Looking at specific segments, freight indices for bulk carriers and crude oil tankers surged significantly within the year by 114.6% and 39.5% respectively, while spot rates for LNG carriers and LPG carriers saw modest increases of 9.0% and 8.6% respectively. In contrast, container ship freight indices and car carrier rates fell sharply by 35.1% and 34.6% respectively. Concurrently, the January-October average rates for major vessel types declined year-on-year, with LNG carriers and car carriers experiencing drops exceeding 50%. From January to October, the average BDTI (crude tanker) and BCTI (product tanker) indices fell by 24.1% and 10.5% year-on-year respectively; the average BDI (bulk carrier) and CCFI (container ship) indices decreased by 13.7% and 22.9% year-on-year respectively; the average one-year time charter rate for 84,000 cbm VLGCs dropped 20.7% year-on-year; the average spot rate for 174,000 cbm LNG carriers and the average one-year time charter rate for 6,500 CEU car carriers plummeted by 53.7% and 53.0% year-on-year respectively.
For the outlook, the global shipping market will continue to navigate a complex and volatile external environment. Multiple factors including slowing economic growth, persistent geopolitical tensions, and pending environmental regulations will profoundly influence market trends. Global seaborne trade volume growth is expected to remain low in 2026. However, structural divergence across segments will become more pronounced: the crude tanker and bulk carrier markets are expected to maintain relatively favourable freight levels, supported by short-term supply-side stimuli (OPEC+ production increases and the commencement of the Simandou iron ore project). In contrast, product tankers, car carriers, and gas carriers face challenges in rate recovery due to short-term oversupply. Container ship freight levels will see complex trends, influenced by international geopolitics, global economic growth, and their own supply-demand dynamics.
Figure 1. Clarkson Sea Freight Index Trend (Monthly Average) Source: Clarksons, CSSC Economic Research Center.
Table 1. Changes in Freight Rates or Indices of Major Ship Types (Jan-Oct 2025) Source: Clarksons, CSSC Economic Research Center.
2.Significant Decline in Global Newbuild Orders, Though 2025 Remains a Relatively Strong Year
Since the beginning of this year, a combination of high newbuild prices misaligned with relatively low freight rates, alongside the impact of US tariff policies and Section 301 investigation restrictions, has intensified shipowner wait-and-see sentiment, leading to a notable contraction in global newbuild orders. From January to October, a total of 1,632 new vessel orders, representing 94.87 million deadweight tons (DWT), were contracted globally, a year-on-year decrease of 44.5%. Analysis by major ship type reveals particularly weak product tanker demand, with orders of 3.161 million DWT, plunging 84.9% year-on-year. Crude tanker orders fell by a relatively smaller margin, reaching 19.454 million DWT, down 30.8% year-on-year. Bulk carrier, LNG carrier, and LPG carrier orders stood at 22.148 million, 1.992 million, and 1.327 million DWT respectively, each declining by over 50% year-on-year. Container ships were the only segment to see growth, with orders totaling 41.062 million DWT, a 0.9% increase in DWT terms year-on-year, accounting for 43.3% of all orders during the period.
Figure 2. Global Newbuilding Order Book Activity
Source: Clarksons, CSSC Economic Research Center.
Table 2. Newbuilding Orders for Major Ship Types
Source: Clarksons, CSSC Economic Research Center.
Figure 3. Order Share by Major Ship Type (in DWT)
Source: Clarksons, CSSC Economic Research Center.
It is now certain that full-year new vessel orders will decline, yet are expected to reach approximately 120 million deadweight tons (DWT), which still represents a historically robust level. From January to October, global cumulative orders reached 94.87 million DWT. Although this reflects a significant decrease compared to the same period last year, it remains 3.9% and 27.1% higher than the average annual order volumes during the same periods of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015, 91.299 million DWT) and the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020, 74.634 million DWT), respectively. As time progresses, some shipowners are gradually adapting to the uncertainties in the global economy and shipping market, potentially leading to a phased release of previously pent-up demand.
The global shipbuilding industry is still anticipated to remain within a broad upcycle during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), albeit facing risks of short-term fluctuations and phased adjustments. The current global fleet contains a substantial number of aging vessels, and the overarching global trend towards green and decarbonized shipping remains irreversible. The fundamental drivers of the current market cycle have not changed. The November mutual suspension of port fees between China and the US provided temporary respite for the shipping industry. However, the short-term market continues to face headwinds, including sluggish economic growth, tariff policies and major power rivalry, uncertain technological pathways for green development, and shipowners' investment decisions being complicated by the combination of declining freight rates and high newbuild prices. These factors increase the risk of a near-term downturn, and the shipbuilding market is expected to face downward pressure in the early part of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. We project that the average annual demand in the global shipbuilding market during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period will be approximately 110 million DWT or 42 million compensated gross tons (CGT), representing a decrease of about 20% compared to the average during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period but still roughly 50% higher than the average during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period.
3.Newbuild Prices Soften from Highs, but Underlying Support Factors Remain
Newbuild prices, while at historically high levels, have shown slight softening from their peaks. The newbuild price index closed at 184.9 points in October, down 2.4% since the start of the year and down 2.5% year-on-year. By ship type, the newbuild price indices for container ships, bulk carriers, liquefied gas carriers, and tankers in October stood at 115.7 points, 211.8 points, 167.4 points, and 198.6 points respectively. These represent decreases of 2.4%, 3.3%, 3.5%, and 5.0% since the beginning of the year, and year-on-year decreases of 1.4%, 4.5%, 4.4%, and 5.1%, respectively. However, looking at future trends, factors supporting high price levels persist. Although current newbuild prices have softened due to contracting order volumes, positive factors on both supply and demand sides – such as the scrapping of aging vessels, demand for green vessel upgrades, and the limited potential for rapid expansion of high-quality shipbuilding capacity – alongside full orderbooks and capacity bottlenecks, are expected to continue supporting prices at elevated levels.
Figure 4. Trend of Clarksons Newbuilding Price Index
Source: Clarksons, CSSC Economic Research Center.
Figure 5. Trend of Newbuilding Price Index by Ship Segment
Source: Clarksons, CSSC Economic Research Center.
4.China Maintains Leading Market Share While South Korea Sees Growth
China's overall market share remains the highest globally, but faces intensifying competition from South Korea and Japan in key segments. From January to October, Chinese shipyards secured new orders totaling 60.086 million deadweight tons (DWT), accounting for 63.3% of global orders during this period. This maintains a significant lead over South Korea (23.278 million DWT, 24.5% share) and Japan (7.212 million DWT, 7.6% share). However, a breakdown by ship type shows China's leadership is primarily maintained in bulk carriers and container ships, while South Korea and Japan continue to gain market share in liquefied gas carriers and tankers.
In the LNG carrier segment, from January to October, South Korean shipyards secured orders for 23 vessels (2.922 million cubic meters), whereas Chinese shipyards secured only 15 vessels (0.296 million cubic meters), representing just a 9.0% share by volume. All large-scale LNG carrier orders were won by South Korean yards.
In the LPG carrier segment, Chinese and South Korean shipyards nearly split the market share in 2024. However, from January to October this year, Japanese and South Korean yards secured a large volume of orders, causing the market share of Chinese shipyards to drop to 21.3% from 47.0% in 2024, with the share largely being taken by Japanese yards.
In the crude oil tanker segment, China's market share fell to 36.2% (Jan-Oct) from a high of 71.7% in 2024.
In the product tanker segment, China's market share decreased to 46.4% (Jan-Oct) from 86.9% in 2024.
Chinese shipyards maintain their advantage in green-powered vessels, and China's leading position in the global shipbuilding market is not expected to change. From January to October, China, South Korea, and Japan held market shares of 65.0%, 28.8%, and 4.4% respectively in new orders for green-powered vessels (by DWT). Looking ahead, Chinese shipyards possess technological resilience in emerging areas like green-powered vessels and a strong capacity to withstand external shocks. Considering factors such as shipbuilding capacity bottlenecks in South Korea and Japan, China's comprehensive competitive advantages, and the resilience of its industrial development, a fundamental overhaul of the global shipbuilding competitive landscape is unlikely, and China's leading position in the global shipbuilding market is expected to remain intact.
Table 3. Market Share of Major Ship Types in China, South Korea, and Japan (Jan-Oct 2024 vs. Jan-Oct 2025)
Source: Clarksons, CSSC Economic Research Center.
