The fundamental oversupply in the container shipping market remains unchanged, and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) continued to decline last week. According to the latest data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on January 16, the SCFI dropped by 73.27 points last week to 1,574.12 points, with the weekly decline widening to 4.45%. Among the four major long-haul routes, freight rates for three declined, with only the U.S. East Coast route experiencing a slight increase.
Last week, freight rates from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast fell by $24 per FEU to $2,194, a weekly decline of 1.08%. Rates from the Far East to the U.S. East Coast rose by $37 per FEU to $3,165, a weekly increase of 1.18%. Freight rates from the Far East to Europe dropped by $43 per TEU to $1,676, a weekly decrease of 2.5%. Rates from the Far East to the Mediterranean fell sharply by $249 per TEU to $2,983, a weekly decline of 7.7%.
On regional routes, freight rates from the Far East to Japan’s Kansai region remained unchanged at $312 per TEU, as did rates to Japan’s Kanto region at $321 per TEU. Rates to Southeast Asia declined by $9 per TEU to $515, while rates to South Korea rose by $2 per TEU to $144.
Industry insiders noted that the growth rate of container ship capacity continues to outpace the increase in actual cargo volumes, with short-term freight rates still significantly impacted by overall capacity supply. Despite some pre-Chinese New Year shipment demand, it remains difficult to fully absorb supply in the short term. As the market supply and demand have not yet fully rebalanced, the short-term market is expected to remain volatile.
Between January 15 and 21, alliance route rates remained relatively stable, with U.S. West Coast rates around $2,000–$2,100 per FEU, U.S. East Coast rates around $3,000–$3,100 per FEU, and Europe rates around $2,300–$2,600 per TEU.
In late January, container shipping companies plan to raise rates on Pacific routes, with estimated increases to around $3,100 for the U.S. West Coast and $4,100 for the U.S. East Coast, reflecting carriers’ pricing expectations for the subsequent period. However, actual performance will depend on cargo volume.
Market sources indicate that major carriers such as Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) have offered special customers pre-Chinese New Year rate-freeze discounts, aiming to attract more cargo through earlier price reductions to boost load factors.
Looking ahead, while freight rates are expected to find some support before the Chinese New Year, the market is likely to remain volatile until supply and demand fully rebalance. Future freight rate trends will depend on actual shipment demand and carriers’ capacity management strategies.
