Recently, shipping market research institution Clarkson released data showing that by early November this year, the global container fleet size had historically surpassed the 7,000-vessel mark. Within the past 37 months, the fleet has grown by 1,000 vessels, marking a 16.67% increase over the last three years—setting a new record for fleet expansion speed.
Analysis indicates that this rapid growth is closely linked to the post-pandemic shipbuilding boom between 2021 and 2022. Danish maritime consultancy Sea-Intelligence has issued a warning, suggesting that the market may face fierce freight rate competition similar to that seen in 2016. Industry experts widely agree that to maintain market health, shipowners urgently need to accelerate the scrapping of older vessels and rationally control new ship orders.
According to analysis by Asian container consultancy Linerlytica, achieving a supply-demand balance in the container shipping market over the next four years will require the scrapping of approximately 4.5 million TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit) of capacity. However, shipbroker Braemar's statistics show that by the end of August this year, actual scrapping involved only about 12 vessels, with a total capacity of less than 8,500 TEU—far from the target.
In terms of newbuilds, global orders for new container ships exceeded 10 million TEU in early September this year, a scale roughly equivalent to the total existing capacity of five Evergreen Marine fleets. Industry leaders have called for new ship construction to focus on replacing older vessels and meeting environmental and emission reduction requirements, rather than blindly expanding capacity.
Clarkson further reports that the global container fleet currently totals 7,007 vessels, with a total capacity of 32.7 million TEU. Since 2024, 936 new container ship orders have been placed, indicating a resurgence in the shipbuilding market. If this trend continues, the global container fleet size is expected to approach 8,000 vessels in the next three years. Currently, global order backlogs remain high at 1,109 vessels, with 991 scheduled for delivery by the end of 2028.
Sea-Intelligence analysis points out that the global container shipping industry is facing "structural overcapacity," which is expected to peak in 2027, with excess capacity potentially comparable to the levels seen during the 2016 freight rate war. Looking back at 2016, overcapacity led to widespread losses across the industry and even triggered events such as the bankruptcy of South Korea’s Hanjin Shipping.
The agency’s forecast sets several premises: assuming the Red Sea route returns to normal by mid-2026, significant previously occupied capacity will be released; accelerated scrapping of fleets older than 20 years is expected to begin in 2026; and it is also noted that while the ongoing Red Sea crisis may temporarily mitigate overcapacity in the short term, it cannot reverse the long-term trend. Additionally, changes in U.S. trade policies may suppress demand, while continued growth in new ship orders would further exacerbate oversupply.
Industry leaders acknowledge that solutions to overcapacity are well understood within the sector. The key lies in whether unified action can be taken to genuinely accelerate the retirement of older vessels and curb disorderly shipbuilding. If the majority of companies fail to take decisive measures, the market adjustment period will be prolonged, and some companies may face severe operational crises.
