Since the beginning of 2025, orders for dry bulk carriers have remained sluggish, with shipowners showing weak willingness to place new orders, and market prices have fallen to their lowest point in nearly a decade. In its latest weekly report, the shipbroking firm Intermodal noted that over the past few weeks, Greek shipowners have shown active engagement in the dry bulk newbuilding market, demonstrating a significant recovery trend. Several well-known shipowners have frequently placed orders at shipyards, with Eastmed, OceanBulk, Efnav, and Seanergy committing to orders for Kamsarmax vessels, while Capital Shipping and Seanergy have also entered the Cape-size vessel market. At the same time, Atlantic Bulk Carriers and JME have similarly set their sights on Ultramax vessels. These orders have dominated the recent newbuilding market, highlighting a renewed interest in ordering among Greek buyers. However, this short-term activity stands in sharp contrast to the overall trend in 2025, and as the end of the year approaches, the annual trend line has become clear.
The contracting volume for dry bulk carriers this year has been exceptionally low, with only 288 vessels ordered so far, marking the lowest annual figure since 2016 and falling far short of recent levels—549 vessels in 2022, 709 in 2023, and 771 in 2024. While orders have generally slowed across countries, the sharp decline in Greek orders is a key factor behind this year's weak data. In 2025, Greek shipowners ordered only 26 bulk carriers, accounting for approximately 9% of the total, with 18 of these concentrated in October and November.
Shipyard choices have also shown a trend toward concentration: apart from three orders placed with Japan, Greek buyers have turned entirely to China, with Hengli Heavy Industries securing nearly 70% of these contracts. In terms of vessel types, Greek orders include 16 Kamsarmax, 7 Ultramax, and 3 Capesize vessels—significantly fewer than the 57 orders in 2024 and 141 in 2023.
Chinese shipowners have also seen a substantial contraction in orders this year, with a total of 112 bulk carriers ordered in 2025, a notable decline from 274 in 2024 and 171 in 2023. These orders were distributed across 21 different shipyards, comprising 31 Newcastlemax, 26 Post-Panamax, 20 Kamsarmax, 20 Supramax, and 15 Handysize vessels.
Japan’s newbuilding activity has similarly contracted, securing only 32 orders so far in 2025, accounting for about 11% of the total dry bulk carrier volume. This stands in stark contrast to the 82 orders in 2024 and 147 in 2023, highlighting Japan’s declining involvement as shipowners adopt more cautious forward-looking strategies.
This year’s exceptionally low contracting volume is attributed to a combination of factors: uncertainty surrounding the IMO regulatory framework, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and limited strategic options. With the delayed timeline for IMO’s net-zero emissions framework negotiations, many shipowners anticipate that the final plan will accommodate a broader range of fuel and engine strategies, including transitional fuels and designs conducive to retrofitting. This expectation of a more flexible and adaptive compliance environment could incentivize some shipowners to advance newbuilding plans.
Regarding tariffs, the one-year suspension of port fee collection has alleviated a significant risk for shipowners. The reduced immediate punitive incentives to avoid Chinese shipyards have tempered some of the wait-and-see sentiment, but uncertainty throughout the year has left its mark. High newbuilding prices and extended delivery timelines remain major barriers, particularly as available shipyard slots are pushed to 2027 and beyond.
Against this backdrop, market sentiment is expected to adjust as conditions stabilize. Once these uncertainties and cost factors are clarified, a recovery in new orders is anticipated. This will not only reflect a market response but also represent strategic positioning in preparation for the next wave of the shipping cycle.
