Global Shipping Shifts from "Trunk-Route Reliance" to "Multi-Polar Dispersion": New routes to Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia are witnessing concentrated maiden voyages, driven by both organic demand and strategic responses to uncertainty.
According to ALPHALINER data, as of the end of November 2025, the Trans-Pacific route, which carries the core of global east-west trunk trade, is under pressure, with capacity contracting by 2.9% year-on-year. Meanwhile, in early Spring 2026, a wave of maiden voyages on new routes to regions like the Middle East and Southeast Asia, combined with capacity restructuring on traditional lanes and port infrastructure upgrades, is accelerating the evolution of global trade from a "traditional trunk-route dependence" towards a decentralized, "multi-polar" pattern. This transformation is driven by both organic market forces and the shipping industry's strategic adaptation to an uncertain environment. The China Shipping Prosperity Report, released by the Shanghai International Shipping Institute on January 6, 2026, indicates that although China's Shipping Prosperity Index remained in the relatively prosperous zone at 112.23 points in Q4 2025, it is forecast to drop to 106.69 points (marginally prosperous zone) in Q1 2026. The confidence index is expected to fall even more sharply from 120.20 points to 96.12 points (slightly below the prosperity threshold), highlighting the industry's apprehension about future market volatility.
Emerging Markets: New Routes Forming a Denser "Capillary" Network
Within less than a month of 2026's start, several landmark maiden voyages have been launched in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. These routes, characterized by "high efficiency, green practices, and customization," not only fill gaps in regional trade corridors but also reshape the logistics competitiveness of emerging markets through technological upgrades and network synergy.
In Southeast Asia, a revolution in express shipping with 7-day direct services and "land-sea coordination" is underway. On January 5th, the departure of the vessel Tongdan from Shanghai's Waigaoqiao Phase V Terminal marked the official launch of Jinjiang Shipping's "Thailand Silk Road Express." As Shanghai Port's first premium foreign trade route in 2026, it sets new benchmarks for speed and environmental standards in Southeast Asian trade corridors. This service, with Shanghai as its homeport, connects seven key logistics nodes across coastal China (Shanghai, Ningbo, Shekou), Northeast Asia (Tokyo, Yokohama), and Southeast Asia (Laem Chabang, Bangkok). Operated independently with four new 1900-TEU container ships, it achieves two key breakthroughs: firstly, a direct transit time of only 7 days from Shanghai to Laem Chabang, Thailand, cutting 3-5 days compared to traditional routes; secondly, an 11-day express service from Laem Chabang to Tokyo. This enables "weekly shipments with weekly arrivals" for electronic components and machinery from the Yangtze River Delta, while Thai tropical fruits gain faster access to the Chinese consumer market.
On January 10th, Maersk's direct Ho Chi Minh service commenced its maiden voyage, establishing a direct link from Shanghai to Cat Lai Port, Ho Chi Minh City. Two days later, Xiamen Port added another Southeast Asian channel with the maiden voyage of the "New Straits NS5" service, jointly operated by Wan Hai Lines and Interasia Lines, from Haitian Terminal. The vessel Da Chun departed fully loaded with construction materials, light industrial products, and consumer goods for Singapore and Port Klang, Malaysia. Utilizing four 2200-TEU vessels, this route builds a direct corridor from Xiamen to the Singapore-Malaysia region. Upon reaching regular operations, each voyage is expected to add approximately 700 TEU to Xiamen's throughput. It not only serves export demand from Southern Fujian to Southeast Asia but also, through "port-port cooperation" with Chengdu International Railway Port, facilitates a "land-sea intermodal" network, supporting the implementation of a "Made in China – Processed in ASEAN – Exported Globally" triangular trade model.
Notably, the efficient operation of these Southeast Asian maiden voyages relies heavily on synergistic port services. Taking the Shanghai Exit-Entry Frontier Inspection Station's Waigaoqiao Station as an example, it implemented a "one vessel, one policy" tailored support plan for the "Thailand Silk Road Express," involving advance pre-check procedures, dedicated channels, and round-the-clock services. This resulted in zero waiting time for berthing and zero delay for departure. Such "port-shipping synergy" models minimize vessel port stays, perfectly aligning with the express service's time-sensitive positioning.
In the Africa direction, a "dual-driver" strategy of port upgrades and route refinement is at play. ALPHALINER data shows that as of the end of November 2025, capacity on routes to Sub-Saharan Africa surged by 27.3% year-on-year. The agency predicts this capacity surge may continue into 2026, indicating the African market is evolving from mere "route additions" towards a deeper phase of "infrastructure upgrade + route optimization." Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, and others are recently pushing intensive port and corridor renovations, providing the hardware foundation for shipping lines' capacity deployment.
In West Africa, the $1.5 billion Lekki Port in Nigeria has alleviated chronic congestion at the Lagos port cluster, accommodating larger vessels and showing significant growth in container throughput, positioning itself as the "new gateway" for West African trade. Port operators state their goal is to "make Nigeria the preferred point of entry and exit for West African trade."
Ghana is also expanding Tema Port. After upgrades financed by the private sector, cargo dwell time has shortened drastically and customs efficiency improved. The port has now become a key transshipment hub for landlocked countries like Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Ghanaian port officials expect "the country's share of regional trade to expand further" post-upgrade.
In East Africa, Kenya is investing in the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor (LAPSSET). Although rail extensions to Rwanda and South Sudan have slowed due to funding issues, the corridor has begun diverting congestion pressure from Mombasa Port, offering East Africa a "diversified trade channel." A logistics analyst in Nairobi noted, "The region must remain competitive through a multi-gateway layout."
South Africa is repairing its freight rail network and upgrading Durban Port to reverse years of inefficiency hampering mineral and agricultural exports. Neighboring Mozambique is expanding Nacala Port, which is increasingly crucial for agricultural, coal, and manufactured goods exports to Asian markets. Namibia's Walvis Bay, connected to Zambia, Botswana, and the DRC via the Walvis Bay Corridor, is attracting more cargo flows due to shorter routes.
Building on these port upgrades, shipping giants are further optimizing African networks. Following the deployment of a 24,000-TEU ultra-large container vessel on its Far East-West Africa "Africa Express" in February 2025 and the launch of the "IROKO" service in September, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) enhanced and upgraded its IROKO service on January 23, 2026. The maiden voyage FN604A departed from Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, adding a direct call at Cape Town. This forms a closed-loop port rotation: Ningbo – Nansha – Singapore – Cape Town – Pointe-Noire – Cotonou – Apapa – Tincan/Lagos – Onne – Lobito – Cape Town – Singapore – Xiamen – Ningbo. Covering key nodes on Africa's east and west coasts, and targeting high-value cargo like retail goods and solar panels, this service can synergize with upgrades at Lekki and Tema ports to further unlock Asia-Africa trade potential.
In the Middle East, new maiden voyages and capacity adjustments primarily revolve around "Red Sea security" and "Mediterranean squeeze." In January 2026, Ocean Network Express (ONE) launched its new China-Red Sea RCS service. The vessel M/V SSF DREAM departed from Shanghai on the port rotation Shanghai – Qingdao – Nansha – Shekou – Jeddah – Sokhna – Aqaba, filling a gap for precise transportation between China and the Red Sea region. Previously, similar services had been jointly launched by Gulf Feeder Service (GFS) and Regional Container Lines (RCL), and Hai Jet Shipping had shortened China-Red Sea transit times to 16 days. These concentrated route launches serve energy and infrastructure demand in the Middle East while also providing channels for manufactured exports from Northeast Africa (e.g., Ethiopia).
Meanwhile, Middle East supply chains are feeling the indirect impact of a "squeeze effect" from Mediterranean shipping routes. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange (see Figure 1), the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) for the Mediterranean route began rising in mid-September 2025. From $1,485 per TEU on September 26, it had climbed to $3,232 per TEU by January 9, 2026—a month-on-month increase of 40.52%, making it the second-highest increase among deep-sea routes, just behind the U.S. West Coast route (see Table 1). Industry insiders informed this publication that the surge in Mediterranean freight rates is primarily driven by robust cargo volumes.
Since the Mediterranean routes directly serve the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region—where goods from Mediterranean hub ports are transshipped to Turkey, North Africa, and the Levant—congestion or freight rate pressures in the Mediterranean directly spill over to Red Sea and Gulf routes. This leads to increased transshipment costs and longer delivery times. Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, pointed out that while the current rate hike includes seasonal factors, such as shippers rushing before the Lunar New Year, carriers’ cautious approach to deploying capacity on Mediterranean routes is structural in nature. This poses a long-term challenge for Middle Eastern traders who rely on this corridor.
Giant Strategies: From "Trunk Route Competition" to "Regional Deep Cultivation"
In mid-December 2025, Ocean Network Express (ONE), the world's sixth-largest liner company with a capacity of 2.05 million TEU, unveiled its 2026 East-West route network plan, slated for full implementation by April 2026. Leveraging additional capacity from newbuilds, the plan aims to consolidate traditional corridors while strengthening coverage in emerging markets. ONE is establishing a multi-layered service system for its core routes. On the Asia-US Southwest corridor, services PS1 through PS8 and AHX connect Asian hubs like Kobe, Nagoya, Yantian, and Kaohsiung with US West Coast ports such as LA/Long Beach and Oakland. Notably, the "VSE Vietnam Express" is specifically designed for Haiphong, Vietnam, catering to the export demand from Southeast Asian manufacturing to the US market. For the Asia-US Northwest and US East Coast routes, services cover Chinese ports like Xiamen, Qingdao, and Shanghai, offering direct access to North American ports including Tacoma, Vancouver, New York, and Savannah. The "WIN" service further opens a trans-ocean corridor from India to the US East Coast, expanding into the South Asian market.
It is noteworthy that all port rotations announced by ONE in this plan are based on routes "diverting via the Cape of Good Hope." The company stated it will continue to monitor the situation in the Red Sea, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the Suez Canal to ensure timely route adjustments. This strategy of "flexible routing + broad regional coverage" helps avoid geopolitical risks while enabling a rapid response to emerging market demands.
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), the world's largest liner company with a capacity of 7.08 million TEU, is currently a key driver on African routes. Its strategy has evolved from "simply deploying mega-ships" to "building closed-loop regional networks." In February 2025, MSC deployed a 24,000-TEU ultra-large container vessel on its Far East-West Africa "Africa Express," replacing the previous 14,000-16,000 TEU vessels, significantly boosting per-voyage capacity. In September, it launched the Far East-Central & West Africa "IROKO" service, employing 4,850-9,400 TEU vessels to serve more small and medium-sized ports. The January 2026 upgrade of the IROKO service, by adding a call at Cape Town, created a "Southeast Asia – East & West Africa Coasts – Southeast Asia" closed loop, reducing vessel ballast sailing.
Maersk, the world's second-largest container carrier, is reshaping its competitiveness within the intra-Asia region. According to ALPHALINER data, Maersk added 100,000 TEU of capacity in this region over the past year, closely chasing COSCO Shipping, the regional capacity leader, with a gap now around only 2,000 TEU. Maersk's deep cultivation strategy in Southeast Asia is evident. By integrating trunk networks through its Gemini cooperation with Hapag-Lloyd to free up resources, it simultaneously intensifies investments in regional infrastructure, route frequency, and partnership layouts. In June 2025, after the Gemini cooperation became fully operational, schedule reliability approached 90% (Sea-Intelligence data), optimizing efficiency through a hub-and-spoke model. Leveraging resources freed by this cooperation, Maersk accelerated its Southeast Asia footprint. In November, it opened its largest Asia-Pacific contract logistics center in Shah Alam, Malaysia, spanning nearly 180,000 square meters and connecting multiple transport hubs to strengthen regional intermodal capabilities. On the route front, in August 2025, it launched a direct Xiamen-Manila service, deploying three 1,700-TEU vessels for weekly frequency with a 2-day transit time to Manila South Harbor. This series of initiatives builds an end-to-end supply chain ecosystem tailored to the demand from manufacturing shifts and intra-regional trade growth in Southeast Asia.
Whether it's ONE's optimization of East-West routes, MSC's deep cultivation in Africa, or Maersk's strategic layout in Southeast Asia, all reflect the industry's shift from "competing on traditional trunk routes" to "fine-grained operation in regional markets." This shift is likely to further promote trade decentralization.
Trunk Route "Bleeding": Capacity Contraction on the Trans-Pacific
While routes in emerging markets flourish, traditional trunk routes like the Trans-Pacific remain under sustained pressure. This contrast between "hot and cold" is a direct manifestation of the gradual decentralization of global trade.
In the first 11 months of 2025, the Trans-Pacific route was the only major trade lane to experience a year-on-year capacity contraction. This pressure stems from multiple factors: the Trump administration's trade tariff policies causing volatile spot rates, the exit of some small carriers, and major operators reducing fleet sizes. Although China and the US simultaneously announced a "one-year suspension of reciprocal port fees" in November 2025, and the China Shipping Prosperity Report indicates nearly 60% of surveyed shipping companies believe this policy will boost cargo volumes on the China-US route in 2026 (with dry bulk carriers being more optimistic), carriers have not yet resumed large-scale capacity investments on this lane based on actual capacity adjustments.
ALPHALINER data shows that in the first 11 months of 2025, a net capacity of 2.27 million TEU was added globally. Of this, 607,400 TEU was deployed on Middle East & Indian Subcontinent routes, 575,400 TEU on Sub-Saharan Africa routes, and 451,100 TEU on Far East-Europe routes. The Trans-Pacific route did not make the list of major recipients for new capacity. Total capacity on Sub-Saharan Africa-related routes reached 2.68 million TEU, accounting for 8.1% of the global container fleet. Meanwhile, total capacity on Asia-Africa routes (excluding Middle East/Indian Subcontinent-Africa) approached 2.2 million TEU, a 54.3% increase from 1.4 million TEU in the same period of 2024, far outpacing growth on traditional trunk routes. The Trans-Pacific route was the only major trade lane to see a year-on-year capacity contraction (-2.9%). The combined global capacity share of the two primary East-West trunk routes (Far East-Europe and Far East-North America) has fallen below 40% (39.3%), down slightly from 41.2% in 2024. This tilt in the "capacity balance" may further reinforce the trend of trade decentralization.
Green Transition: The Long-Term Driver of Emerging Market Ascent
The surge of maiden voyages in 2026 is not merely a result of market demand but is also propelled by the global shipping industry's green transition and regulatory changes. These long-term factors will continue to influence route networks and trade flows.
In January 2026, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered into force, and the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) "net-zero" framework is expected to be voted on in October 2026. Against this backdrop, green vessels have become the standard for new maiden voyage routes. For instance, the 1900-TEU vessels deployed on Jinjiang Shipping's "Thailand Silk Road Express" are projected to reduce carbon emissions by over 30% compared to baseline, helping shippers lower their carbon footprint costs. MSC's 24,000-TEU mega-ships deployed on African routes also feature low-consumption engines and hull optimization technologies, complying with international emission reduction requirements. The China Shipping Prosperity Report shows over 60% of surveyed enterprises are most concerned about "carbon emission accounting and regulatory details," followed by green fuel standards, subsidy policies, and penalty rules for non-compliance, indicating the industry has placed the green transition at the core of its strategy.
The deepening of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) provides policy support for the surge of maiden voyages in Southeast Asia. According to China's General Administration of Customs data, in the first 11 months of 2025, ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner. The total trade value between China and ASEAN reached 6.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.5%, accounting for 16.6% of China's total foreign trade. Among China's top three trading partners, Vietnam and Malaysia from Southeast Asia ranked first and second, respectively. In terms of export volume, Southeast Asian countries with close trade ties to China are concentrated in Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Singapore (see Table 2).
Among these, China's exports to Vietnam recorded the highest trade value, reaching 1.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%; followed by exports to Thailand, with a trade value of 667.25 billion yuan, up 21.3% year-on-year; exports to Malaysia also exceeded 600 billion yuan. Routes such as Jinjiang Shipping’s “Thailand Silk Road Express” and the “New Straits NS5” service jointly operated by Wan Hai Lines and Interasia Lines are well-positioned to meet this robust export demand. Concurrently, the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement (AfCFTA) relies on port and corridor upgrades—such as the LAPSSET Corridor and the expansion of Tema Port—to reduce regional trade costs. The enhancement of this infrastructure and the launch of new maiden voyage routes create a “complementary effect,” helping to further unlock the potential of emerging markets.
Judging from the surge of maiden voyages at the beginning of 2026, global trade is moving away from an era “dominated by traditional trunk routes” and entering a new, decentralized phase characterized by “multi-polar dispersion and regional deep cultivation.” A 27.3% surge in capacity on African routes, the breakthrough in 7-day transit times on Southeast Asia express services, the route linkage between the Middle East and the Mediterranean, and the continued contraction of the Trans-Pacific route collectively outline the contours of this transformation.
